Fantasy Implications

The NFL Lockout is over and now it's time for some pandemonium as we rush to have a 4 month offseason in the span of two weeks. Let's look at each of the signings so far from a fantasy perspective...

Ravens cut WR Derrick Mason... there is a chance they re-sign him but Mason's run might be over. This is a guy that was always drafted about 2-3 rounds later than he should have been. This will be good for WR Anquan Boldin who you might be able to steal in your draft this year. With Mason gone, there is nobody worthy of even being a WR2 on an NFL unless one of their younger players breaks out.

Ravens cut TE Todd Heap... he will latch on somewhere and make for a good backup fantasy TE depending on his situation. Huge sleeper potential now for TE Ed Dickson who had some solid games while Heap was hurt.

Ravens cut RB Willis McGahee... he might go somewhere else to vulture TD's but this is a good thing for Ray Rice who should be drafted somewhere in the #4-#7 range overall.

Vikings sign WR Devin Aromashodu... he had plenty of chances to break through with Chicago but he couldn't do it. He can spread the field as a 4th WR but he shouldn't see your FF squad.

Seahawks sign QB Tarvaris Jackson... this is a good sign that Matt Hasselbeck will not be back. I doubt Jackson wins the starting job from Charlie Whitehurst. Neither QB is draftable at this point although Whitehurst could potentially be a bye week replacement playing in the weak NFC West.

Washington re-signs WR Santana Moss... he doesn't have a lot throwing to him this year so you can probably steal him later in the draft. WR is actually a decent spot for the Redskins with deep threat Anthony Armstrong and powerful rookie Leonard Hankerson. I would sign off on Moss in the 8th round or later.

Cowboys cut WR Roy Williams... by now, every fantasy owner has been burned by Williams. When some team takes a flier on him, feel free to do the same but don't play him until you see him produce for two straight weeks.

Cowboys cut RB Marion Barber... he looked to have lost his burst but he's still young enough to get another look. He could become a TD vulture who hurts the incumbent starter for his eventual suitor.

2011 NFL Mock Draft

As "Macho Man" Randy Savage would say... "Ohhhh Yeahhhh". We're about to finally snap into the Slim Jim of a 2011 NFL season. Usually we get liftoff with free agency but this season we are getting more updates about the Judge Nelson's than the Lawyer Tillman's of the world. It has been truly brutal but now we finally get a nugget of satisfaction with the NFL Draft. One thing you can say for the lockout though... this will likely be the most unpredictable NFL Draft in recent memory.

1) CAROLINA PANTHERS - QB CAM NEWTON, AUBURN
... Newton is not the safest pick but you have to give Carolina credit for trying to hit a home run rather than a single. Perhaps if the Panthers had an incumbent coach who was fighting for his job they'd take someone else. But Ron Rivera is playing with house money right now. He probably realized quickly that Jimmy Clausen isn't the answer. The bigger picture though is Carolina needs a hook to bring in the fans who are anti-Jerry Richardson right now. People might actually come out to see Cam Newton play and do something exciting. This is a far cry from the normal boring and conservative offense that the Panthers have run for the past decade.

2) DENVER BRONCOS - DT MARCELL DAREUS, ALABAMA
... Speaking of conservative, Denver has gone from the possibly insane Josh McDaniels at coach to the definitely mundane John Fox. Everyone knows that Fox likes to build up the middle of his defense. Dareus reminds me of Sean Gilbert at the peak of his career. The Broncos also happen to have a huge need at DT. Some picks are no-brainers.

3) BUFFALO BILLS - OLB VON MILLER, TEXAS A&M
... This is the first wild card pick of the draft. The Bills could go a number of ways. Their selection of C.J. Spiller last year shows me that A.J. Green could even be a possibility. Buffalo's weakest spot is at LB though and Von Miller is the one LB in the draft who is a complete player. The Bills could also look at CB Patrick Peterson but one thing that makes an average CB look much better is a great pass rush. Miller is the top edge rusher in this draft.

4) CINCINNATI BENGALS - WR A.J. GREEN, GEORGIA
... The Bengals need a QB to hedge against Carson Palmer sticking to his retirement threats. They are in prime position to still get a good QB in the 2nd round so I think they pass on Blaine Gabbert. Ocho seems to have worn out his welcome as coach Marvin Lewis has publicly been talking smack about him. When Ocho talks on Twitter, he does it for attention. When Lewis says something like that, I think he means business.

5) ARIZONA CARDINALS - CB PATRICK PETERSON, LSU
... I look for Arizona to make a play for a QB in free agency. They already have two young QB prospects in John Skelton and Max Hall. Their coach is somehow on the hot seat despite taking them to a Super Bowl a mere three seasons ago. Peterson is the best player available here. I wouldn't rule out Arizona trading down with someone in order to take an OT though.

6) CLEVELAND BROWNS - WR JULIO JONES, ALABAMA
... One thing this draft will show is how crazy the SEC was last year. So far, 5 of the top 6 picks are SEC alumni. Cleveland parted ways with most of their D-Line so that is a position they will need to address. But Mike Holmgren always goes after a top notch WR for is QB's. Jones had a crazy draft combine which had some teams liking him better than A.J. Green. Other players to watch for here are Nick Fairly and Robert Quinn. They might also want to think about picking a RB to replace Peyton Hillis who was just doomed by his selection as the Madden 12 cover boy.

7) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS - DE CAMERON JORDAN, CALIFORNIA
... Jordan is the son of Minnesota Vikings TE Steve Jordan so his skills are in the bloodlines. While Blaine Gabbert is a possibility here, I think coaches who come in from the college ranks are usually tempted to pick players who made an impact on them during their college coaching days. Jordan is the top Pac10 player who fits here.

8) TENNESSEE TITANS - DT NICK FAIRLEY, AUBURN
... Fairley was a game changer for Auburn when they beat Oregon for the National Title. The Titans need some more penetration in the middle of the DL and they also happen to employ Fairley's position coach while at Auburn. The only reason he is slipping is because he is a one-year wonder whose passion is questioned. That does sound bad now that I think about it.

9) DALLAS COWBOYS - DE J.J. WATT, WISCONSIN
... This pick may not be flashy enough for Dallas who actually has a lot of needs for a team with so much hype. They are rumored to like OT Tyron Smith but they also haven't picked an OT in the first round in over 20 years. Watt is rocketing up draft boards and this might be his landing spot.

10) WASHINGTON REDSKINS - QB BLAINE GABBERT, MISSOURI
... If the season started today the Redskins would be starting Rex Grossman at QB. That's not good. Gabbert's slide stops here.

11) HOUSTON TEXANS - LB ALDON SMITH, MISSOURI
... Houston is switching to a 3-4 defense this year so they will be loading up on talent to fill that scheme. Aldon Smith is being compared to DeMarcus Ware. Defensive Coordinator Wade Phillips will like that.

12) MINNESOTA VIKINGS - QB JAKE LOCKER, WASHINGTON
... Someone is going to fall in love with Locker who might have gone in the Top 3 if he came out last year. He still has a world of talent but he has some inconsistent accuracy. The Vikings don't want to go to war with Joe Webb at QB.

13) DETROIT LIONS - OT TYRON SMITH, USC
... Detroit has a lot of options here as the best guys available all meet their needs. Ultimately the NFL is a QB driven league. The Lions have a good QB who can't stay healthy so they need to do something to protect him. Smith has the ability to play LT or RT.

14) ST. LOUIS RAMS - CB PRINCE AMUKAMARA, NEBRASKA
... Amukamara was supposed to be a Top 10 pick but he slides as many CB's do on draft day. The Rams have a big need in the secondary. I just hope the Vikings don't select him so I don't have to see a "Purple Reign" headline in the future. #badPrincejoke #badhashmarkjoke

15) MIAMI DOLPHINS - DE ROBERT QUINN, UNC
... I have a feeling that Miami wants to trade down so while Quinn may go here, he may not go to Miami. I'm projecting a slide for Quinn since he missed football last year after being suspended by the NCAA and their are concerns about a brain tumor coming back.

16) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS - DE RYAN KERRIGAN, PURDUE
... Yawn, it's Jacksonville, they never do anything exciting.

17) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS - CB JIMMY SMITH, COLORADO
... The Pats have roughly 97 draft picks this season. They need to add some talent to their defense which couldn't get them off the field versus the Jets in the 2011 playoffs. Smith might be the 2nd best CB in this draft but teams question his character. The Pats locker room chemistry is too strong to let Smith's personality concern be an issue.

18) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS - DT MUHAMMAD WILKERSON, TEMPLE
... I don't know much about this guy but Mel Kiper seems to love him. The Chargers need a lot of help at DE and Wilkerson could play there in a 3-4 defense.

19) NEW YORK GIANTS - OT ANTHONY CASTONZO, BOSTON COLLEGE
... Castonzo is the type of blue collar guy that Tom Coughlin values on his OL. Plus they share a BC connection.

20) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS - DE DA'QUAN BOWERS, CLEMSON
... Bowers was once in consideration for the #1 pick in the draft. Unfortunately he had an abysmal past two months including a terrible pro day where he looked slow. He had surgery on his knee in the offseason and there are concerns he will never have the same burst. This is a high risk pick but if it works, the Bucs defense becomes a force.

21) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS - OG MIKE POUNCEY, FLORIDA
... This kind of pick worked for Pittsburgh last year when they took Mike's more talented twin Maurkice.

22) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS - OT NATE SOLDER, COLORADO
... Peyton Manning actually looked human at times last season. That will be rectified. Count on Indy to address their OL and WR corps.

23) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES - DT COREY LIUGET, ILLINOIS
... Philly doesn't have a lot of top guys available at positions of need so they go with the best player on the board. Andy Reid loves taking players in the trenches.

24) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS - DT MARVIN AUSTIN, UNC
... Yet another Tarheel who was suspended last year. Austin had a tremendous draft season and now many teams have him rated up there with Nick Fairley. The Saints need to beef up the middle of their line. Here is exhibit A... no this isn't from Tecmo Bowl: The Movie http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBHk9rc4hHc

25) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS - OT GABE CARIMI, WISCONSIN
... This would be a prime spot for a trade down with a team that wants to secure a QB they really like. Seattle has a huge need at RT but somehow this selection doesn't feel right.

26) BALTIMORE RAVENS - DE CAMERON HEYWARD, OHIO ST
... Ironhead's son is a perfect fit for the Ravens defense.

27) ATLANTA FALCONS - TE KYLE RUDOLPH, NOTRE DAME
... Tony Gonzalez fell off a cliff last year with his production. This may be his final season. What better guy to teach the top TE prospect in the draft? Matt Ryan has gotten used to having a reliable option at TE so they will do whatever to keep him happy.

28) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS - LB BROOKS REED, ARIZONA
... Once again the Pats work on their defense. They never could generate a good pass rush last season. Reed came out of nowhere in the offseason to become a possible first rounder.

29) CHICAGO BEARS - OT DEREK SHERROD, MISSISSIPPI ST
... The Bears need to do something to keep Jay Cutler on the field. He made some miraculous plays last season considering he rarely had any time to read the defense. With Mike Martz at Offensive Coordinator they could totally neglect the OL though. He famously has done that in past stops.

30) NEW YORK JETS - NT PHIL TAYLOR, BAYLOR
... The Jets drafted CB Kyle Wilson in 2010 as a knee jerk reaction to being unable to stop Peyton Manning the prior season. In the 2010 playoffs, they could not stop RB Rashard Mendenhall and ultimately it lost them a chance to make the Super Bowl. They will make the same knee jerk reaction this year. Plus they cut incumbent NT Kris Jenkins so they need a replacement. Plus Rex Ryan will like standing next to Phil Taylor at all times to make himself look thinner.

31) PITTSBURGH STEELERS - CB AARON WILLIAMS, TEXAS
... Since we're talking about knee jerks, the Steelers couldn't stop Aaron Rodgers in the Super Bowl. Something tells me that William Gay jerseys aren't flying off the shelves in the Steel City... for more reasons than one.

32) GREEN BAY PACKERS - OG DANNY WATKINS, BAYLOR
... The Pack doesn't have a lot of holes to fill so they might not be scared by the fact that Watkins is a 27 year-old rookie. When was the last time two Baylor players were drafted in the same season, much less in the first round?

Super Bowl QB's

The 2010 season is drawing to a close and we're just over one week away from the Super Bowl. This game illustrates perfectly the difference between Fantasy and Reality. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has solidified himself as the #1 fantasy QB for the 2011 season. Meanwhile, Ben Roethlisberger might not even be considered a Top 10 fantasy QB... yet the guy is 28 years old and playing for the chance at a 3rd Super Bowl ring. In the real world he is a Top 3 QB. You can hate Ben Roethlisberger the person all you want but you can't hate on Ben Roethlisberger the QB because he's just too good.

In my estimation, this is the list of the top Fantasy QB's for 2011:

1) Aaron Rodgers GB - He's at the of his game with a wide open offense and plenty of weapons. What pushes him over the top is his mobility. This is an attribute that Brady and Manning don't share.

2) Peyton Manning IND - Yes I know he is coming off one of the shakiest seasons of his career. He got stuck throwing to a bunch of jabronis after injuries hit. Next year he will have a healthy Dallas Clark. Perhaps Garcon and Collie can stay healthy. Plus I can guarantee Peyton will get a new toy in either free agency or the draft.

3) Tom Brady NE - Forget about what happened against the Jets in the playoffs. New England lacked a deep threat to open up the field after Randy Moss died. I definitely think they will use one of their 700 draft picks this year to upgrade that position. He has two of the best young TE's in the game. His track record speaks for itself.

4) Drew Brees NO - He had a slow start to 2010 but that can be attributed to the Madden Curse. The Saints are loaded at WR and now they have Jimmy Graham at TE. Graham is the next Antonio Gates.

5) Philip Rivers SD - He could easily be considered in the discussion for the Top 3. Look what he did statistically with Vincent Jackson holding out and then Antonio Gates getting injured. It's pretty amazing. These 5 are definitely the top tier of QB's in your fantasy league next year.